A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
